Summary
- Ukraine is destroying important Russian S-300/S-400 SAMs, weakening Russian air defense.
- The attacks primarily target valuable radars, potentially endangering Russian air defense capabilities.
- Russia’s reliance on SAMs due to weaker air force might be exploited by Ukraine, leveraging US support.
With the United States finally delivering ACTAMS missiles to Ukraine, Ukraine appears to be destroying a large number of Russian S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems (SAMs). One suggestion is that Ukraine is working to weaken Russian air defense before the F-16 fighter jets arrive. The first Ukrainian F-16s are expected to arrive sometime this summer.
Ukraine hammers Russian air defense
Most recently, on June 12, Ukraine claimed to have targeted one S-300 and two S-400 air defense batteries in Crimea (the attack took place on the night of June 11). The Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed at least two S-300/S-400 radars and caused secondary ammunition detonations. Satellite imagery published on June 12 at least partially verifying Ukrainian claims. It shows a destroyed S-400 radar, and some destroyed S-300 assets at another location.
Photo: volkova natalia l Shutterstock
Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia could have lost 6 divisions of S-300/400 systems destroyed in May and June (and it’s only halfway through June). That is an unsustainable amount for any nation. A prominent open-source intelligence blogger wrote, “Countdown to F-16s: Ukraine continues to wipe out Russian air defense in occupied Crimea.” But is this true? The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) certainly thinks so.
“Ukrainian forces may be conducting an effort aimed at degrading Russian air defenses, which, if successful, could enable Ukraine to more effectively leverage manned fixed-wing airpower in the long run.” – Institute for the Study of War
Related
Ukrainian Missile Strike In Crimea Takes Out 2 Russian MiG-31 Fighter Jets & Damages 3 Su-27s
Ukraine managed to destroy and damage several Russian fighter jets in occupied Crimea in a devastating missile strike.
Russia deploys new S-500 system
Ukrainian Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov recently stated Russia has moved its new and experimental S-500 air defense system to Crimea (it is reportedly worth $2.5 billion). This could be a sign of desperation by Russia, which has now been losing a huge amount of valuable air defense equipment in Crimea.
Russia claims it can intercept all types of modern hypersonic weapons. It seems that the world will soon find out just how effective the new Russian SAM really is or isn’t.
In April 2024, Ukrainska Pravda reported former-Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced Russian forces were receiving their first operational S-500 systems. Confusingly, Russian state news agency TASS reported in 2021 that the first operational systems had already been delivered.
Air defense: A cornerstone of Russian defense
It is very difficult to know how many S-300 and S-400 SAMs Russia has (the S-400 is essentially an upgraded variant of the S-300). However, Russia does have many of them—but not an infinite supply. Russia, like the Soviet Union before it, has always had a much weaker air force than the West. Knowing the Soviet/Russian Air Force would struggle against Western air forces, the Soviet Union/Russia always relied strongly on SAMs to deny the skies to the West.
The Russians/Soviets reasoned that they would contest the air on the ground if they couldn’t contest the air in the air. This is essentially what Ukraine has succeeded in doing. Despite having a small and outdated air force, Ukraine has denied Ukrainian airspace behind the frontlines to the Russian Air Force thanks to a powerful air defense network.