In this handout picture released by Kazakhstan’s emergency situations ministry, emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. | Photo by Handout / Kazakhstan’s emergency situations ministry / AFP
ASTANA, Kazakhstan — The official cause of the crash of a Russia-bound Azerbaijani plane in Kazakhstan on Wednesday that killed 38 of the 67 people on board is still unknown.
But, pointing to apparent shrapnel damage on the wreckage, experts have said the plane could have been accidentally shot down by Russian air defence.
Russian and Kazakh authorities have warned against “hypotheses” and “speculation” on causes, calling for patience until the investigation is concluded.
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Azerbaijani jet crashes in Kazakhstan, 32 survive
38 dead and 29 survivors as Azerbaijani airliner crashes in Kazakhstan
Emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. | Photo by Issa Tazhenbayev / AFP
Here is what we know about the crash:
Air defence
Military and aviation experts have said the Embraer 190 could have been shot down by Russian air defence.
The plane’s scheduled route was from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in Chechnya, where Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in recent weeks.
Drone attacks were reported earlier on Wednesday in Ingushetia and North Ossetia — two republics near Chechnya also located in southern Russia.
“The traces seen on the plane suggest that it is quite probable” that it was shot down by a missile, Jean-Paul Troadec, a former director of France’s BEA air accident investigation agency, told AFP.
Russian military expert Yury Podolyaka said holes seen in the wreckage of the plane were similar to the damage caused by an “anti-aircraft missile system”.
“Everything points to that,” he wrote.
A former expert at France’s BEA also said there appeared to be “a lot of shrapnel” damage on the wreckage.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the damage was “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed with a surface-to-air missile by Russia-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
That crash killed 298 people.
Emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. | Photo by Issa Tazhenbayev / AFP
Birds theory
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions.”
Authorities in Kazakhstan, a key Russian ally, also warned against “speculation”.
Azerbaijan Airlines initially said the plane flew through a flock of birds before withdrawing the statement.
Russia’s aviation agency also mentioned birds as a possible cause.
The former BEA expert said it was unlikely since the impact of birds “does not prevent the plane from flying”.
A regional department of the Kazakh health ministry referred to an “explosion of a canister” on board, without giving any further detail.
In this handout picture released by Kazakhstan’s emergency situations ministry on December 26, 2024, emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau. | Photo by Handout / Kazakhstan’s emergency situations ministry / AFP
Strange trajectory
The plane was far from its intended flight path on the western shore of the Caspian Sea, crashing in Aktau on the eastern shore.
The reason why it veered off is unclear.
Former BEA director Troadec said the route was “a great unknown” in the incident.
Russia’s aviation agency said on Wednesday that “due to an emergency situation on board the plane, the pilot decided to go to another airport — Aktau was chosen”.
The specialist website Flightradar24, which tracks flights, said the flight had experienced “significant GPS interference”.
The plane “stopped sending positional data” for a few minutes, the site said.
In this handout picture released by Kazakhstan’s emergency situations ministry, emergency specialists work at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. | Photo by Handout / Kazakhstan’s emergency situations ministry / AFP
Victims
The plane was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members.
Kazakhstan said 38 people were killed and 29 survived, including three children.
There were 37 passengers from Azerbaijan, six from Kazakhstan, three from Kyrgyzstan and 16 from Russia on board, the Kazakh transport ministry said.
The crew were all Azerbaijani nationals.
Fourteen survivors were flown to Azerbaijan, TASS news agency reported, while nine Russian survivors, including a child, have been taken to Russia.
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