The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) expects performance at Dulles International Airport to have a solid tailwind throughout 2025.
The authority’s calendar-year-2025 budget projects 13.7 million passenger enplanements at the airport in the coming year. If it transpires, passenger counts for 2025 would rise slightly from updated 2024 projections and be up 10.5% from 2019, the last year before arrival of Covid sent air travel into a tailspin.
Airport leaders appear confident in the projection, based on conversations with carriers using the facility.
“We have very, very upbeat airline forecasts,” said Jack Potter, president and CEO of MWAA, which runs Dulles and Reagan National Airport.
Speaking during consideration of the budget plan, Potter told a subcommittee of the MWAA board of directors on Wednesday (Nov. 20) that Dulles is benefiting from aviation trends generally in a post-Covid environment as well as some activity specific to it as an airport:
- Pent-up demand from travelers who found it difficult to impossible to fly for a number of years continues to lead to heavy leisure travel across the nation and around the globe, along with a more modest rebound of business-related travel.
- At Dulles, dominant carrier United Airlines is planning to expand its already large footprint by 30% in coming years.
As a result, the authority is embarking on some major new facilities to accommodate the growth, Potter said, adding that it’s doing so in a prudent manner.
“We build when the demand is there, not when we think demand will come,” Potter told MWAA board members.
The operating budget for Dulles in 2025 has been set at $219.6 million, up 10.2% from the current budget. The projected cost-per-enplanement of $11.17 to airlines is the lowest rate since 2005.
“Our formula has been to keep the costs down for airlines as low as we possibly can,” Potter said.
A similarly rosy scenario is anticipated to play out at Reagan National, with a record passenger count of 13.2 million enplanements projected — roughly 11% above 2019 figures. The cost-per-enplanement for airlines at the Arlington-based airport is estimated at $8.41, the lowest in nearly three decades.
“Wouldn’t you like to pay 1998 prices for anything?” Potter asked.
The budget to run Reagan National for 2025 has been set at $120.2 million. When consolidated and public-safety costs and debt service are factored into the operation of the two airports, MWAA’s total airport-operation budget of $828.9 million for 2025 would be up 2.3% from the current calendar year.
Possible headwinds, according to airport officials, could include geopolitical issues, ongoing inflation, the possibility of a recession and potential pandemic flare-ups.
“We don’t want to be too aggressive” in budgeting, MWAA Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer Andrew Rountree said.
He said one key push would be further improvement in revenue tangentially tied to airline operations, including parking, rental-car concessions and restaurant/retail leases.
Revenue growth in non-airline areas will be needed if the authority aims to keep pace with its planned capital spending. The current 15-year timeline anticipates $9.6 billion in capital projects, with the majority of that funding being spent at Dulles.
Wednesday’s meeting also marked the end of the line for two Virginia appointees to the MWAA board, with the terms of Walter Tejada and John Braun expiring on Nov. 23. Gov. Glenn Youngkin has appointed their successors: his former chief of staff, Jeff Goettman of McLean, and Alex Vogel of Upperville.
Directors can serve for up to two six-year terms. Virginia, Maryland, D.C. and the federal government are represented on the board.
While run by MWAA under a long-term lease, Northern Virginia’s two major airports remained owned by the federal government. National opened in 1941, with Dulles following in 1962.
