From Cirium:

Below are some data points from client Cirium, an aviation analytics company, as analyzed by our team.

A Hot July for U.S. Travel — And a Surprisingly Cool U.S. Destination has the Most Traffic

Seats scheduled up 6% in the domestic U.S. market and 7.8% on Transatlantic routes…and the hottest city-pair in the U.S. is sure to surprise

The story last summer in the closely-watched U.S. domestic and transatlantic markets was growth. The story this summer? More — a lot more. The insights below are from an analysis of Cirium airline schedule data.

The U.S. Domestic Market: Up 6% in July 2024

The major U.S. airlines have scheduled around 6% more domestic seats this July than last year — with a notable exception. This July, JetBlue has scheduled 9.2% fewer domestic seats compared to last. (JetBlue announced capacity cuts earlier in the year primarily due to staffing and the congested network on the East Coast of the U.S.) Southwest Airlines will schedule only 1.4% more seats for this July compared to last, having reduced its plans due to availability of the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft they rely on.

The airlines’ plans differ substantially depending on the type of carrier. Three ultra-low cost carriers Frontier, Spirit, and Sun Country will bring significantly more seats to their markets. Breeze Airways — which now boasts a fleet of 40 aircraft (of which 25 are Airbus A220) — shows a 33% increase in seats scheduled. In the aggregate, these carriers fly substantially fewer seats than the Big 4 U.S. airlines. American Airlines will fly the most seats out of any carrier at more than 20.5M seats scheduled, followed closely by Southwest Airlines.

Seats Scheduled in July 2024

Airline July 2024 July 2023 Percentage Change
Alaska Airlines 5,152,741 4,789,066 7.59%
Allegiant Air 2,263,716 2,154,822 5.05%
American Airlines 20,519,680 18,973,829 8.15%
Avelo Airlines 294,490 291,944 0.87%
Breeze Airways 542,516 406,810 33.36%
Delta Air Lines 18,659,453 17,777,347 4.96%
Frontier Airlines 3,989,472 2,939,326 35.73%
Hawaiian Airlines 1,105,705 1,124,554 -1.68%
JetBlue 2,993,542 3,298,323 -9.24%
Southwest Airlines 20,325,414 20,051,083 1.37%
Spirit Airlines 4,740,135 3,906,194 21.35%
Sun Country Airlines 576,414 462,210 24.71%
United Airlines 14,407,786 13,987,654 3.00%

Transatlantic Flying: Up 7.8% in 2024

Airlines increased capacity in summer 2023 compared to 2022 by 18%, and are poised to do the same for July 2024. The transatlantic carriers — including the European operators — will deploy additional capacity from the U.S. to Europe, with schedules showing a 7.8% increase in seats flown over July 2023. 

The top carriers? United and Delta are following the lead they set last summer, finding opportunities for revenue premiums. This summer, watch for the Europe carriers to add — including Air France with a 15% increase in seats scheduled — perhaps betting on the strength of demand for the Paris Olympics. 

Date Jul 2024 Jul 2023 Diff Percent Diff
Airline Name Seats  Seats Seats Seats
United Airlines  722,428 701,075 21,353 3.0%
Delta Air Lines 719,985 685,497 34,488 5.0%
American Airlines 565,077 533,377 31,700 5.9%
British Airways 419,169 411,567 7,602 1.8%
Lufthansa 323,584 292,854 30,730 10.5%
Air France 279,426 242,508 36,918 15.2%
Virgin Atlantic 242,973 223,517 19,456 8.7%
Turkish Airlines 209,672 187,291 22,381 11.9%
Aer Lingus 163,591 154,674 8,917 5.8%
Iberia 131,072 114,428 16,644 14.5%
Icelandair 117,360 104,600 12,760 12.2%

Where are the destinations of choice?

For the European market, Denmark, Croatia, and Spain show the most growth in seats from the U.S., with double-digit growth in flying.

Denmark 27%
Croatia 17%
Spain 16%

For the U.S. domestic market, the usual U.S. domestic city-pairs always factor — between New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. 

However, it may surprise journalists to know that Seattle, Washington to Anchorage, Alaska will have the most seats flown in July 2024 — around 146,000 seats, some 2,000 more seats than between New York-LaGuardia and Chicago O’Hare. Alaska Airlines will fly almost 80% of these north-south flights.

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