On October 1,

Iran launched a massive missile attack on airbases
and the Mossad Headquarters in Israel
. Now some analysis of the damage is coming to light. According to new open-source intelligence and satellite photos, approximately 32 missile impact craters can be seen in and near Israel’s Nevatim Air Base (where Israel’s valuable F-35
stealth fighter jets
are based). No aircraft can be seen damaged at the airbase, although it is possible some aircraft were destroyed or damaged in hangars and hardened shelters that were hit.

Observed damage at Nevatim Air Base

Of the 32 or so impacts that can be observed by satellite imagery, six appear to have hit building facilities. Of these, three missiles hit hangars, two appear to have hit administrative buildings, one hit the maintenance hangar at the southern part of the base, and another seems to have hit an administrative or maintenance building on the eastern end of the base.

The other 26 Iranian
missiles appear to have hit easy-to-repair roads and taxiways – or missed the airbase and hit out in the desert completely. Israel has not (and perhaps will not) disclosed details of the damage to the airbase.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the California-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies, released the satellite images along with the early count. He is also a host of the Arms Control Wonk Podcast and a member of the State Department International Security Advisory Board.

IAF F-35I Adir on its first flight with the Israeli Air Force, 13 December 2016

“Our first count is that 32 missiles struck Nevatim Air Base (pins) — although three impact points are obscured by clouds in the 50 cm Skysat and had to be made with 3 m Dove images (white pins).” – Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

Underwealthing given the number of missile strikes

In all, the massive missile strike reportedly taking around 180 Iranian missiles is impressive in scope and in penetrating Israeli air defenses. But they also show poor targeting and low accuracy, with most of the missiles making it through, causing little to no damage. Multiple dramatic videos emerged online showing 30+ hits on the airbase shortly after the attack.

That doesn’t mean that the strike didn’t result in significant Israeli aircraft losses – it would be significant if any aerial tankers, F-35 fighter jets, or AWACS aircraft were hit in the hangars/hardened shelters. But the missiles did far less damage than what a similar number of precision American missiles would have done raining down on an air base.

It is unclear if any aircraft were in the hangars when they were hit (satellite images were circulating online showing the tail of an aircraft protruding from the hangar – but that image is undated). Open-source intelligence blogger, Intelschizo, pointed out that the damaged maintenance hangar does not store F-35s but is a maintenance point for tankers, transports, and AWACS.

Iranian missiles were also seen impacting another Israeli airbase – Tel Nof Airbase – and the Mossad Headquarters. Damage to those sites remains unclear. As the Israelis knew the attack was coming, they had time to prepare, and it was possible many F-35s were in the air at the time of the strike.

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