Summary
- Emirates will ‘permanently’ remove the Airbus A380 from its Dubai to Washington Dulles route in November.
- Switching to the 777-300ER means passenger capacity per flight will reduce by 27%.
- Three in four Emirates passengers transited Dubai to other destinations in May.
Emirates will stop using the Airbus A380 from Dubai – a crucial widebody airport – to Washington Dulles in November. It is not a seasonal adjustment. Instead, it has been ‘permanently’ removed, although it may change later. It comes as Lufthansa will use the double-decker quadjet to Dulles next summer.
Emirates: no more A380s to Dulles
The last A380 will leave for Dulles on November 4th, with the Boeing 777-300ER taking over after that. Using Cirium to analyze the schedule shows that the swap means seats for sale per flight are reduced by more than a quarter (-27%). First class is retained, just with eight instead of 14 seats (-43%).
Between November and next August, the carrier now expects around 218,000 roundtrip seats for sale, down from the previously planned 298,000. This capacity reduction should mean better loads and pricing for Emirates, especially in the off-season with lower demand. According to US DOT T-100 data, Dulles had an average seat load factor (SLF) of 84% in May, the latest month for which I have data, below its US operations generally.
Photo: Davide Calabresi | Shutterstock.
Emirates first served Dulles in September 2012, with the A380 used from February 2016. The type continued until March 2020 and returned the following summer. From November, the schedule will be as follows, with all times local:
- Dubai to Dulles: EK231, 02:25-09:00 (14h 35m block time)
- Dulles to Dubai: EK232, 11:15-08:15+1 (13h)
Where do Dulles passengers go?
Analyzing T-100 data for May 2023 shows that Emirates carried about 26,700 passengers to/from Dulles. Relating that to booking data suggests that approximately 21% of passengers were point-to-point (P2P): they only flew between the two airports and did not connect.
Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying.
Across all airlines, the Dulles-Dubai P2P market had a surprisingly high ~21,000 passengers in May (677 daily). Emirates captured less than a quarter of the total, as it is usually cheaper for P2P passengers to fly with a different carrier than with the hub airline itself. Higher fares to/from a hub, normally helped by non-stops or higher frequencies, are offset by lower fares through a hub, driving passenger volume.
Stay aware: Sign up for my weekly new routes newsletter.
Three in four passengers transited
Some 77% of passengers – a considerable proportion – transited behind and beyond Dubai. Inevitably, India was fundamental, with Dulles to/from Hyderabad the most popular market.
Image: GCMap.
In order of passenger numbers, the rest of the top 10 markets were Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Beijing, Bengaluru, Bangkok, Dhaka, Jakarta, and Manila. (The remaining 2% of passengers transited Dulles or transferred at both airports.)
Still two A380 operators at Dulles
While Emirates will no longer use the quadjet to Dulles, British Airways and – for the first time – Lufthansa will. Next summer, LH414 will arrive from Munich at 19:25, followed 65 minutes later by BA293 from London Heathrow, Europe’s second-busiest airport by September flights. LH415 will depart at 22:20 and BA292 at 22:45.
What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comments.
Sources of information: Cirium, Google Flights, US DOT T-100, booking data.