Summary
- The 600 daily US-Europe passenger flight milestone will be broken next year.
- It will come eight years after the 500 mark was passed, slowed by the pandemic.
- The peak is to be 601 daily on just two occasions next summer.
Airlines plan to fly 600 or more daily scheduled passenger flights from the US to Europe next summer (each way). Analysis shows that just 10 days in June, July, and August will have that many, with the maximum – 601 – just twice: on June 29th and August 3rd. While things certainly may change as summer plans are adapted and finalized, this is the situation as of October 8th, 2023.
600 or more daily flights
Based on schedules submitted by carriers to Cirium, 600 or more daily US-Europe flights will only be on summer Saturdays. The first date with that many is June 8th, then 15th, 22nd, 29th, July 6th, 13th, 20th, 27th, August 3rd, and August 10th. After that, the present plan sees it fall dramatically (!) to ‘just’ 599 daily on Saturdays.
The figure below shows the development of services on more than 7,600 individual days since September 2003. The peak summer, with many more flights to capture the greater demand, is pronounced.
Source of data: Cirium. Figure: James Pearson
The widening summer-winter gap is also evident as airlines increasingly change seasonal offerings to maximize summer profits and minimize winter losses. Note that 500+ daily was first achieved on July 31st, 2016 (503 daily), with the pandemic obviously delaying further growth.
Flights are up significantly
When the ten summer Saturdays are combined, they will have 6,002 departures to Europe. That is +8.2% versus the same dates in 2019 and +7.8% versus 2023 (or comparable Saturdays if the exact date was on a different day).
Photo: Soos Jozsef/Shutterstock
Take June 29th, the first date with 601 services planned. In 2019 (also a Saturday), there were 554 flights, rising by just one to 555 on the closest applicable date in 2023. In other words, there will be an additional 46 flights on this day next summer in just one year.
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601 daily: June 29th
As a snapshot of activity and again subject to change, consider June 29th, 2024. That one day, 35+ airlines will have planned 447 routes involving 37 US airports and about 40 in Europe.
Turkish Airlines flight TK30 is scheduled as the first departure on the 29th. Timed to go at 00:10, the assigned Boeing 787-9 will return from Newark to Istanbul Airport, Europe’s busiest airport (based on September services).
Photo: EvrenKalinbacak/Shutterstock
The day is set to end with four departures at 23:55:
- Turkish Airlines: TK12 from JFK to Istanbul (777-300ER)
- Emirates: EK210 from Newark to Athens and Dubai (777-300ER)
- SAS: SK920 from JFK to Copenhagen (A330-300)
- Norse Atlantic: N0602 from JFK to Berlin (787-9)
United will have about one in six flights
To no one’s surprise, United will have more flights than any other carrier on June 29th, just like any other day. However, just three departures separate it from number two, Delta. When all US operators are combined, they will have 44% of European non-stop services, not far off half. The top 10 operators are planned to be as follows:
- United: 96 daily departing US-Europe flights on June 29th
- Delta: 93
- American: 66
- British Airways: 50
- Lufthansa: 34
- Air France: 30
- Virgin Atlantic: 25
- Icelandair: 21
- Aer Lingus: 20
- Turkish Airlines: 20
What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comments.