Summary
- flydubai’s order for 30 Boeing 787-9s marks a significant milestone for the carrier.
- The introduction of the equipment could lead to various developments, such as adding capacity to existing routes, reducing frequencies in specific markets, and switching destinations from Emirates.
- Potential new flydubai routes include Adelaide, Edinburgh, Gothenburg, and Marseille, among others.
flydubai has placed a historic order for 30 Boeing 787-9s. They will join its Boeing 737-800s, 737 MAX 8s, and MAX 9s, with MAX 10s on their way. The 787 order is a switch from big sibling Emirates, which has ordered 787-8s and 787-10s.
While the two airlines might become even closer, fundamental questions remain unanswered about how heavily constrained Dubai International can accommodate the aircraft on order, even with replacements, and any future role of the barely used Dubai World Central.
How could they be used?
Generally, future roles for flydubai’s 787s are likely to involve these options, most of which would result in aircraft being freed up for other endeavors.
- Adding capacity to existing routes where it is needed, freeing up its 737s to be operated elsewhere. It would be especially interesting if they were then used to serve more African destinations
- Reducing frequencies in markets with multiple daily flights, if suitable considering the need for competitive onward connectivity, freeing up 737s and slots at ever-congested Dubai. Perhaps Russian, Central Asian, and specific South Asian markets could be especially good here
- Switching less premium destinations from Emirates, such as Clark, Cebu, Durban, Montreal, and Newcastle, allowing aircraft to be redeployed
- Switching less well-performing destinations from Emirates, if they are important enough to be served for connectivity, strategic, or other reasons
- Opening up new routes that require the range, passenger capacity, and freight capacity of the 787-9, perhaps opportunities that might otherwise not be served by either operator
Photo: flydubai
Where might see them?
Ignoring equipment changes and where flydubai might replace Emirates, nearly all the following markets are unserved from Dubai. Yet they have pretty good (unstimulated) point-to-point demand, together with all the potential traffic flow beyond Dubai.
Stay aware: Sign up for my weekly new routes newsletter.
Subject to all the usual considerations, including air service agreements, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish whether Emirates (with the 787-8 or A350-900) or flydubai (with the 787-9) would be more suitable. Given the enormous problems of more traffic rights to Germany, I have not suggested anywhere there.
- Adelaide
- Bamako
- Brazzaville
- Chengdu
- Chongqing
- Davao
- Edinburgh (served by Emirates until 2020 and continues to serve Glasgow)
- Gothenburg
- Helsinki
- Kinshasa (previously served by flydubai in 2018-2019)
- Libreville
- Marseille
- Nagoya
- Phnom Penh (served by Emirates 2017-2020)
- Porto (served by Emirates 2019-2020)
- Surabaya
- Toulouse
- Zhengzhou (served by Emirates 2016-2018)
Image: GCMap
While I am gazing at a crystal ball, where would you like to see flydubai’s 787s fly? Let us know by leaving a comment. No matter where they end up, it will be a huge next chapter for the smaller sibling of Goliath Emirates.
Sources: OAG, Cirium, Google Flights, flydubai’s website, ch-aviation, booking data