Ukrainian Missile Strike In Crimea Takes Out 2 Russian MiG-31 Fighter Jets & Damages 3 Su-27s

Summary

  • Ukrainian airstrikes at Belbek Airbase are successful, damaging multiple Russian aircraft and infrastructure.
  • Russia has suffered over 100 fixed-wing aircraft and almost 150 helicopter losses in the war.
  • Ukraine’s use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles continues to be effective in targeting high-value Russian assets.

No matter how well an aircraft fights and flies, all aircraft are sitting ducks on the ground. Ukraine appears to have just destroyed or damaged around half a dozen Russian aircraft on the ground at Russia’s Belbek Airbase in occupied Crimea (along with a valuable S-400 SAM system). The reported losses below are likely the minimum as the cluster munitions of the missiles can damage and shred an aircraft, but the damage might not be visible from satellite imagery.

In recent months, Ukraine appears to have shot down a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber and two very rare and expensive Beriev A50U AWACS spy planes. After two years of war, the Russian Air Force remains unable to achieve air superiority over Ukraine.

Ukraine’s missile attack on Belbek Airbase

On 15 May, Ukraine used US-supplied ATACMS missiles to attack the air base. Videos taken by locals emerged online, showing the airbase under attack and air defense firing. As usual, Russian sources claimed all missiles were destroyed. While missiles were, indeed, destroyed, it may have been impacting Russian jets that destroyed them (not Russian air defense). The first confirmation of Russian losses at Belbek Airbase came from informal Russian Telegram channels.

MiG-31 afterbuner shutterstock_1865376931

Photo: JetKat | Shutterstock

The next day (May 16), with the airbase’s air defense weakened, Ukraine attacked the airbase again. At the time of writing (May 17), it appears Ukraine has attacked Russian targets in Crimea for a third straight night. It is unclear at this point which targets were hit and what the damage is.

Additionally, another developing story is the mass Ukrainian drone attack on Novorossiysk, where much of what is left of the Black Sea Fleet has fled. Ukraine has made it untenable for the fleet to remain at its main base in Sevastopol, Crimea. Videos shared on social media show a mass attack and some drones getting through air defense and striking an oil refinery. It is unclear if Russia’s fleet was also hit.

Overall, Russia has been independently confirmed to have lost over 100 fixed-wing aircraft and almost 150 helicopters in the war. While these losses are painful and often represent some of the best and newest Russian aircraft, many of these losses have been replaced with new production.

Observed Russian losses at Belkbek Airbase

Amid the fog of war and propaganda claims and counterclaims, high-resolution satellite images paired with photos taken on the ground and shared online paint a picture of a very successful Ukrainian attack on the Russian Belbek airbase. The hulks of two burned-out MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors can be observed from satellite photos. Some open-source analysts stated the MiG-31s were the MiG-31K variant (although other experts claimed they were MiG-31BMs). A few Flankers appeared to be damaged (also reported in Russian Telegram chats) as well as an old MiG-29.

MiG-29 in flight

From preliminary open-source analysis, it appears Russia lost:

  • 2x MiG-31 Foxhounds (destroyed)
  • 1x S-400 SAM system 92N6E “Grave Stone” radar (destroyed)
  • 2x S-400 Launchers (Destroyed)
  • 3x Su-27MS Flankers (damaged)
  • Warehouse for MiG-31, Su-30 Missiles
  • Fuel farm
MiG-31 with Kinzhal hypersonic missile

Before the attack, only one MiG-31 had been lost in the war (in a non-combat-related incident). It was lost on takeoff from the same Belbek Air Force Base. MiG-31s are the fastest fighter jets in the world and are used to carry Russia’s (perhaps over-hyped) Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. This may also have been the first time a MiG-31 was destroyed by US-produced weapons.

It is possible that the single most valuable target that was destroyed was the expensive and difficult-to-replace S-400 92N6E “Grave Stone” radar. Ukraine is working to strain, stretch, and degrade Russia’s air defense network (including by launching long-range drones to attack Russia’s oil refineries around the country). It should also be noted that Ukraine’s air defense is also critically strained at this point in the conflict.

An adjacent fuel farm also appears to have been completely destroyed. The fuel farm is believed to have been able to hold 450,00 liters of fuel (the loss of the associated storage and pumping systems is likely the most significant).

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Ukraine’s captured old MiG-29s

The Military Watch on X (formerly Twitter) stated that a Flanker (assumed to be a Su-27M3) had been completely destroyed. However, another open source account, Evergreen, stated that the rumors that a Flanker had been completely destroyed were false, as higher-resolution satellite imagery (which can’t be publicly released for copyright reasons) shows it was an old and unairworthy MiG-29.

Russia returned some of the Ukrainian MiG-29s (and other military equipment) after illegally annexing Crimea in 2014. But stopped after relations deteriorated further between them. One or two of the 9 ex-Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 were left at the air base (these were mostly non-operational).

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ATACMS missile firing

Photo: Lockheed Martin

The tale of ATACMS

After an extensive period of lobbying, the United States finally supplied Ukraine with a limited number of ATACMS missiles. These are long-range missiles that can devastate Russian high-value targets far behind the front lines. Ukraine first received a limited number of ATACMs in October 2023 that it promptly used to devastate two Russian attack helicopter bases in occupied Ukraine. Since the passing of the Ukraine aid bill last month more ATACMS have been supplied to Ukraine.

Ukraine is believed to have used the cluster-munition variety of MGM-140 ATACMS. Instead of having a penetrating warhead (good for hardened targets), these missiles carry many small sub-munitions that they spray out over a large area just before impact. As aircraft are soft targets, this is devastating for them, and it means one ATACMS missile can destroy multiple aircraft if they are somewhat close to each other.

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