Summary
- Ukrainian drones are reshaping warfare, damaging high-profile Russian aircraft.
- Su-57 loss underscores the need to protect aircraft in hardened shelters.
- Cheap drones provide some capabilities similar to fighter jets at a fraction of the cost.
Yesterday, the Ukrainian armed forces dropped a bombshell (no pun intended) – they had damaged (likely destroyed) a prized 5th-generation Su-57 fighter jet on the ground. The jet has been hit by the explosions of at least two drone strikes. The Russian Su-57 has become the latest high-profile fatality from Ukraine’s burgeoning drone capabilities and is likely the first 5th-gen fighter to be destroyed in combat (not counting the F-117 as 5th-gen). Later that day, Ukraine suggested they may have hit a second Su-57 in the same strike but need more confirmation. So, what does this mean for the future of airpower?
Growing drone capabilities
When the history books are written about this war, it is quite possible they will tell the tale of a drone war. Drones are proliferating and evolving at a break-neck speed, rewriting the way wars are fought. The drone war of today has almost nothing in common with the first days of the war when Ukraine fought back with Turkish-supplied TB2 Bayraktar drones while an ad-hoc group of Ukrainian drone enthusiasts kept the army updated on the Russian whereabouts via WhatsApp.
Now, Ukrainian long-range drone attacks into Russia are becoming seemingly a daily occurrence. Not all of the results of the drone attacks are known, but they have damaged or destroyed some of Russia’s most valuable aircraft.
Known high-profile Russian aviation losses to drones include strategic bombers (Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS), transport aircraft (Il-76 – including possibly a tanker variant), amphibious aircraft (Beriev Be-200), possibly an AWACS (Beriev A50U), and various fighter aircraft. Now, Ukraine has (possibly) destroyed Russia’s newest fighter jet, the Sukhoi Su-57.

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Ukraine has now demonstrated the ability to take out high-flying Russian drones with other drones, which is a potentially important development.
The increasing need to protect airbases
It should be noted it is too early to know if drones will maintain their effectiveness against an opponent like the US or in a future war. There are many ways to counter drones (including electronic warfare and lasers). Russia was able to counter and destroy Ukraine’s fleet of TB2 Bayraktar drones within weeks.
Additionally, the loss of the Su-57 on the ground says nothing about the aircraft’s effectiveness in the air, but it does underscore the need for aircraft to be protected in hardened shelters. It is unlikely the Su-57 would have been destroyed if it had been protected in a hardened shelter. The construction of new aircraft shelters has been seen at one Russian airbase, although these seem more like thin-skinned sheds than actual aircraft-hardened shelters.
For now, cheap drones provide Ukraine with some of the capabilities of an air force without having to operate complicated and expensive fighter jets. While a Su-57 costs $30 million (perhaps more), a Ukrainian Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat drone only costs around $90,000 – or around 0.003% of the cost. This means it is economically worthwhile to launch swarms of drones at a single fighter jet.