Summary

  • US domestic flights are up 6% in July 2024, with the most growth (%) made by low-cost carriers.
  • Capacity on transatlantic flights increased by 7.8%, with United Airlines and Delta offering the highest number of seats.
  • 4th of July weekend to see record-breaking passenger numbers, over 3 million a day.

With the peak summer travel season nearly upon the Northern Hemisphere, the US is gearing up for a busier summer than the last. Scheduled seats on its domestic network have increased by 6% and 7.8% on the Transatlantic routes. Additionally, the US is set to see record-breaking passenger numbers during the weekend of the 4th of July, with daily passenger numbers expected to hit a record high of over 3 million.

Deep dive into the domestic network

Data from the US domestic network by Cirium shows that, on average, the major airlines within the country have scheduled 6% more flights this July compared to 2023. Of the 13 airlines analyzed, 11 have shown growth in the domestic network, with JetBlue (-9.24%) and Hawaiian Airlines (-1.68%) being the only two carriers to have fewer seats scheduled than July 2023.

When considering the US Big 4 – American, Delta, Southwest, and United, the combined seat offerings of the four carriers this July totaled 73,912,333 seats, a 4.4% increase compared to July 2023.

Capacity Comparison July 2023 vs July 2024

Photo: Abid Habib | Simple Flying

Though Southwest has shown the least growth in terms of capacity offerings, it is worth noting that the airline has been severely impacted by the ongoing production/delivery delays of the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which forced the airline to modify its schedule for this summer. United Airlines has also been facing delivery delays with the 737 MAX and the Boeing 787 Dreamliners but is more resilient due to its mixed fleet.

However, it is worth noting that the airlines with the largest increase in capacity offerings are all low-cost carriers, with a double-digit percentage increase.

Airline

July 2023

July 2024

Capacity Increase (%)

Frontier Airlines

2,939,326

3,989,472

35.73

Breeze Airways

406,810

542,516

33.36

Sun Country Airlines

462,210

567,414

24.71

Spirit Airlines

3,906,194

4,740,135

21.35

Flights across the Atlantic

While the US domestic market is booming, significant growth is happening in another important market as well, and that is the network connecting the US and European destinations. This July, the seating capacity flown across the Atlantic will be 7.8% higher than that of July 2023.

United Airlines 787 flying

Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying

United Airlines leads the pack in this market, closely followed by Delta Air Lines, each with over 700,000 seats this month. However, when it comes to capacity growth across the Atlantic, the highest growth has been for Air France (+15.2 %), closely followed by Iberia (+14.5 %).

Within the Transatlantic corridor, this July has the highest number of flights recorded between the US and the United Kingdom, with over 4,670 flights operating each way. This is 1.5% more flights than pre-covid July 2019 levels and over 21% more services than July 2014 levels, which shows the significant growth in this market over the past decade.

Related

Summer Demand: UK-US Flights See 3% Rise On Pre-Pandemic Activity

Cirium data revealed the most in-demand holiday destinations.

In terms of the bigger picture, within the overall Transatlantic market, data suggests there is a stronger presence of Star Alliance members when it comes to the capacity offered when compared to Sky Team and oneworld alliances.

Capacity Comparison between Alliances

Photo: Abid Habib | Simple Flying

Data utilized in this analysis only includes carriers with major US-European operations, thus excluding flights of carriers such as TAP Portugal, ITA, JetBlue, and Norse Atlantic, and fifth-freedom operations such as those offered by Emirates and Singapore Airlines.

Record-breaking numbers expected

With people across the US celebrating the 4th of July, paired with a long weekend, the airports across the country have been preparing for the travel season as the TSA, in recent weeks, has been seeing record-breaking numbers across all airports.

Last week, the TSA stated that the airports are already seeing a 5.4% increase in passenger numbers from 2023 and are forecasting to handle over a record 3 million passengers for the first time ever. During this peak period, the TSA anticipates screening over 28 million passengers, with the busiest travel days to be between July 5th and July 7th.

Related

US Airports Brace For July 4th Holiday Travel Rush

The TSA expects to screen over 28 million passengers during the holiday period.

Airport flight Board

Photo: Arina P Habich | Shutterstock

The TSA has recently invested in implementing more PreCheck facilities for smoother and safer security check operations for passengers. Nevertheless, the TSA and airports have asked all passengers to arrive at the airport nice and early to ensure adequate time for passengers to get to their flight gates on time.

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