Summary

  • Secretary Kendall questions aspects of the NGAD program and concerns about cost and design concepts.
  • Review happening before the 2026 budget is sent to Congress
  • NGAD includes crewed platform, CCAs, weapon systems – focus on right design for investment.

Last weekend and yesterday, news broke that the Secretary of the US Air Force, Frank Kendall, is questioning some aspects of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. However, as Secretary Kendall shared with Breaking Defense and DefenseScoop has learned from analysts, NGAD is just being reviewed.

Secretary Kendall: “We are going to take a hard look at NGAD before moving forward, but…”

In many news reports from Royal International Air Tattoo (RIAT) 2024, such as Reuters, Secretary Kendall was quoted as saying,

“Before we make the commitment that we are close to making, we want to make sure we have got the right design concept. NGAD was conceived before a number of things: before the threat became so severe, before CCAs [Collaborative Combat Aircrafts] were introduced into the equation, and before we had some issues with affordability that we are currently facing. So we are going to take a hard look at NGAD before moving forward, but the family of systems which includes a crewed platform and CCAs and weapon systems and communications … is still very much the concept that we are pursuing”.

Kendall also shared that the review will happen before the 2026 budget. Secretary Kendall made clear in several media appearances that General Wilsbach did not share the Air Force Secretary’s assessment of affairs regarding timing of NGAD. One can read below what General Wilsbach shared with the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

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The US Air Force is working to get to a point to moving the human-controlled component of NGAD to picking a prime contractor.

The fact billions will be spent on NGAD development also gives the Air Force Secretary pause. As per below, at least $3 Billion is intended annually until 2029 on the program.

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However, the cost of each crewed NGAD will be significantly more than the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning currently coming off of the factory lines. One can see Lockheed Martin F-35 factory photos below:

As such, Secretary Kendall wants to make sure the NGAD investment will not be fiscally unsustainable before committing. Secretary Kendall also shared with Aviation Week that this is a reassessment of getting “the right design”.

Also Secretary Kendall, “I’m confident there’s going to be a sixth-generation fighter”

Following up, in an exclusive interview with Breaking Defense, Secretary Kendall shared that,

“I’m confident there’s going to be a sixth-generation fighter. I’m reasonably confident that it’s going to be crewed.”

What Secretary Kendall also shared is again, he wanted to reassess the cost and the requirements to support NGAD – especially in regards to things like runway length if the logistics tail became equivalent to the F-22’s logistics needs requiring heavy airlift. Secretary Kendall also empathized that NGAD would be expected to go up against the People’s Republic of China, currently flexing its muscle – not the integrated air defenses of Syria using Soviet systems the F-22 Raptor was in the 1990s and worked to mollify in the 2010s during OPERATION INHERENT RESOLVE to attack the terror group ISIS’ Syrian bases.

170214-Z-CO490-038 - An F-22 Raptor launches a sortie in support of Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve from an undisclosed location in Southwest Asia, Feb. 14, 2017. F-22s have provided close air support and precision guided strikes in an effort to weaken and destroy Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant operations in the Middle East region and around the world.

Photo: Senior Airman Tyler Woodward | US Air Force

This delay was affirmed in the Breaking Defense story by analyst J.J. Gertler of the Teal Group, who considered this development “a final checklist before getting in the air”. Gertler also shared this review led by the Air Force Secretary is an update to the world of defense in the mid-2020s before procurement begins in earnest.

DefenseScoop: Perhaps big changes in NGAD crewed aircraft, but not CCA

DefenseScoop on June 21 ran a decent-sized feature, making clear that NGAD was not just going up against budget realities and getting updated to new defense realities, but that the crewed version of NGAD may be larger than a traditional fighter jet. As J.J. Gertler shared with DefenseScoop, a larger platform translates to more range which is where Gertler is, “guessing where the current gap is”.

Other analysts’ thoughts were sought out. For instance, Mark Gunzinger, director of future aerospace concepts and capabilities assessments at the Mitchell Institute, shared bluntly about NGAD’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone component intended to supplement the crewed aircraft component that,

“Budget-driven actions like not acquiring sufficient [fifth-generation] F-35s and delaying the NGAD risk cutting the legs out from under the case for CCA.”

It’s CCA that will be the uncrewed drone intended to be the loyal wingman packing artificial intelligence and additional smart weapons to increase the weapons available to the flight and able for the CCA to be expendable if necessary. CCA development is supported by the previously profiled X-62A.

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Additionally, the Mitchell Institute did a podcast about how CCA will help with sortie generation over the weekend:

Yes, the US Air and Space Forces Association’s think tank is leaning forward to propose concepts for the best employment of US Air Force and Space Force current and future assets.

Bottom line

NGAD is currently undergoing a final review before a primary vendor is selected and aircraft are built. NGAD is a family of systems that includes a crewed version with a human pilot and an uncrewed CCA drone. The US Air Force wants to get the picks right to meet the pacing threat of the US military – the People’s Republic of China.

Do you think we will see NGAD actually built? Share in the thread.

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