Approximately 5.9 million people flew between the US and India in the year to July 2024, equivalent to more than 8,000 passengers daily each way. These figures are based on examining booking data available to me on a subscription basis.
Of course, most people—an estimated 86 in every 100—connected to another flight en route, especially in the Gulf and Europe. Even more potential one-stop options via the Middle East may materialize, including the much-rumored Gulf Air and the inevitable Riyadh Air.
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US-India is the world’s largest underserved long-haul country market. Reasons more non-stop flights do not exist include:
- Often very long stage lengths
- Typically relatively low yields, reflecting distance and the general lack of premium traffic
- An inability to overfly Russia for US operators
-
A shortage of widebodies for
Air India, with its Airbus A350s replacing Boeing 777s for now
- Questions over the profitability of Indian flights, especially for US carriers
- A myriad of one-stop options, often with good frequencies and better hard products, although Air India is belatedly catching up with its Airbus A350s and retrofitting and updating its Boeing 777s
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The US’s top 10 unserved Indian markets
They are shown below, some of which have served previously, albeit on a one-stop basis. Any future flights would inevitably be non-stop.
Seattle to Delhi is the largest unserved airport pair, with 129,000 roundtrip passengers. The airport pair’s distance was comfortably the shortest of the top 10. However, despite being 13% shorter than the average, the base fare of just $550 each way—by far the lowest—was 31% lower. Ouch.
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In early 2024, Air India added Seattle, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Los Angeles to its route map, fueling speculation that it will begin flying to them. In the summer, it confirmed that Dallas/Fort Worth and Los Angeles flights were being planned. Perhaps not mentioning Seattle was deliberate. Alas, nothing has been officially announced as the year approaches its end.
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The top 10 unserved markets generated around $1.4 billion in revenue.
|
Airport pair |
Roundtrip passengers* (August 2023-July 2024) |
Passengers daily each way* |
Base fare (one-way)** |
Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Seattle-Delhi |
129,000 |
177 |
$550 |
Seattle’s largest unserved long-haul market |
|
Dallas/Fort Worth-Hyderabad |
99,000 |
136 |
$873 |
Dallas’ largest unserved long-haul market |
|
New York JFK-Hyderabad |
97,000 |
133 |
$855 |
Air India flew Hyderabad-Mumbai-JFK on the 777-200LR in 2009/2010. Hyderabad is JFK’s third-largest unserved long-haul destination |
|
Delhi-Los Angeles |
95,000 |
130 |
$790 |
Air India flew Delhi-Frankfurt-Los Angeles on the 747-400 between 2006-2008. Delhi is Los Angeles’ third-largest unserved long-haul destination |
|
Washington Dulles-Hyderabad |
94,000 |
129 |
$569 |
Air India flew Hyderabad-Delhi-Dulles between 2017-2020. Hyderabad is Dulles’ largest unserved long-haul destination |
|
New York JFK-Ahmedabad |
88,000 |
121 |
$616 |
JFK’s fourth-largest unserved long-haul market |
|
Chicago O’Hare-Hyderabad |
83,000 |
114 |
$689 |
Air India had limited 777-200LR non-stop flights in 2021/2022. It flew Hyderabad-Delhi-O’Hare on the 777-300ER between 2010-2020. Hyderabad is O’Hare’s second-largest unserved long-haul market (after Manila) |
|
San Francisco-Hyderabad |
80,000 |
110 |
$1,014 |
San Francisco’s second-largest unserved long-haul destination |
|
New York JFK-Bengaluru |
74,000 |
101 |
$1,061 |
JFK’s fifth-largest unserved long-haul market |
|
Los Angeles-Mumbai |
71,000 |
97 |
$911 |
Air India served it via Frankfurt on the 747-400 between 2004-2006. Mumbai is Los Angeles’ fourth-largest unserved market |
|
* Rounded for easier viewing |
* Excl. seasonality. Double for both ways |
** Excl. fuel surcharge, taxes, and other add-ons. Averaged across all passengers in all cabins |
What about Dallas-Hyderadad?
Dallas/Fort Worth-Hyderabad is the longest of the markets mentioned above, at 7,793 nautical miles (14,435 km) each way. For context, it is 172 nautical miles (319 km) longer than Singapore-Los Angeles, which Singapore Airlines operates. Singapore Airlines nearly always deploys its 253-seat A350-900s rather than its 161-seat A350ULRs. It is, therefore, the world’s longest non-stop non-ULR A350 route.
Photo: Aerospace Trek | Shutterstock
Dallas-Hyderabad would be a vast distance. If Air India flew its 316-seat A350-900s, they’d be much heavier than Singapore Airlines’ more premium 253-seaters. Only 9% of Air India’s A350s are business seats against nearly double (17%) for Singapore Airlines’ config.
Air India would incur a significant payload restriction, further reducing the chance of profitability. Its incoming A350-1000s would suffer the same fate.
High yields from high premium traffic are needed to offset the considerable operating costs to make any ultra-long-haul route work. Singapore-Los Angeles has this: its average base fare (for all passengers and cabins) was $1,614. In contrast, Dallas-Hyderabad was almost half ($873). Despite the market size, I do not see it happening.