Frontier Airlines’
latest schedule filings have revealed that the low-cost carrier is planning to completely slash or potentially reduce capacity on over 40 routes in the United States, including two Puerto Rico-bound itineraries.
Preliminary capacity cuts
In a development first flagged by Ishrion Aviation on BlueSky, Frontier Airlines has filed its preliminary schedule until April 21, 2025, which included the removal of over 40 routes from various airports across the US, including some of its major bases.
Frontier Airlines indefinitely suspends 40+ routes: • RDU to BDL/BUF/CVG/IND/MDW/MSY/ORD/PIT/SYR • DFW to BNA/OMA/JAX/PIT/SJU/SMF/STL • ATL to GRR/ISP/MSP/MSY/PIT/SYR • CLE to CLT/IAH/MSP/PHL/RDU/BWI • ONT to SLC/SMF/PDX/PHX • DEN to CMH/SYR/LGA/GRR • CVG to IAH/LGA/MSP/PHL (1/2)
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— Ishrion Aviation (@ishrionaviation.bsky.social) December 16, 2024 at 3:28 AM
This includes but is not exclusive to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport
(ATL), Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport
(DFW), Denver International Airport
(DEN), and Philadelphia International Airport
(PHL).
Photo: Bradley Caslin | Shutterstock
The quartet was among the busiest airports in Frontier Airlines’ schedule in April, with the airline scheduling 514, 262, 238, and 214 weekly flights from Denver, Atlanta, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Philadelphia, respectively, according to data from the aviation analytics company Cirium’s Diio airline planning system.
At the same time, these changes could be network adjustments. In November, the airline announced 16 new routes, including flights from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport
(AUS), Denver, Indianapolis International Airport (IND), Orlando International Airport
(MCO), and others.
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Maturing bases
During Frontier Airlines’ Q3 earnings call on October 29, the carrier’s executives admitted that there had been headwinds from excess domestic capacity during the quarter and that the airline has been struggling with non-peak flying.
Jimmy Dempsey, the president of Frontier Airlines, remarked that during the quarter, it removed 37% of off-peak flying, shaping its weekly schedules on higher-demand days while adding new routes. As a result, its revenue pool grew by 17%, Dempsey noted.
“This strategy is proving to be a successful adjustment to our deployed capacity whereby, in addition to leisure traffic flows, we enhance our attractiveness to VFR [visit friends and relatives – ed. note] and small business traffic.”
Photo: Don Mammoser | Shutterstock
The executive continued that off-peak traffic flows have been challenging, and Frontier Airlines expected to continue moderating capacity on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, as well as red-eye flights in 2025. The focus will be to improve its revenue per available seat mile (RASM) performance, with its decision to move away from capacity-heavy, underperforming markets resulting in maturing redeployed capacity across its 13 bases.
Going forward, capacity should grow in the mid-single digits with an average stage length of 900 miles (1,448 kilometers) in 2025. In comparison, Cirium’s Diio data showed that Frontier Airlines’ capacity grew by 14.8% in terms of flights and 18.1% seats in 2024 versus 2023.
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Frontier Airlines will continue reducing flights on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Sundays, and red-eye itineraries.
Competitors’ capacity plans
Cirium Diio data also showed that some of Frontier Airlines’ competitors, including Spirit Airlines
and JetBlue
, are also adjusting capacity in April 2025.
For example, Spirit Airlines has scheduled 570 fewer weekly flights year-on-year (YoY), with the carrier, which began its Chapter 11 process on November 18, announcing a sale of 23 Airbus A320ceo and A321ceo aircraft in October. The US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York cleared the sale of an initial batch of the aircraft in late November, which means that one way or another, Spirit Airlines will have to cut capacity due to a significant change in the number of aircraft it will operate going forward.
Photo: Robin Guess | Shutterstock
Meanwhile, JetBlue, which launched its ‘JetForward’ strategy in July, included network re-adjustments with a particular focus on its East Coast leisure network.
Data showed that it will only add 45 weekly flights YoY, which will result in a weekly seat increase of 2.3% in April 2025. However, some airports, such as New York LaGuardia Airport (LGA) or Los Angeles International Airport
(LAX), will see heavy cuts during the month.
Locations, including San Antonio International Airport (SAT), Puerto Vallarta International Airport (PVR), Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport (MKE), and even London Gatwick Airport
(LGW), will have no JetBlue flights for at least April 2025.
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The carrier’s latest update to investors on December 4 included upgraded guidance for its Q4 and full-year outlook following positive travel trends following the US elections and during the Thanksgiving holidays.
“For travel in December, in-quarter bookings have exceeded prior expectations in both peak and off-peak travel periods. JetBlue’s 2024 revenue initiatives are expected to exceed $300 million of cumulative benefit in the fourth quarter, supported by preferred seating, the Blue Basic carry-on baggage policy change, and other initiatives.”
JetBlue also highlighted that ‘JetForward’ has already resulted in an improvement in operational reliability as its YoY on-time performance improved by 12% in October and 7% in November.
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JetBlue’s capacity and revenues would still be lower in Q4 and in 2024 than the corresponding periods last year.