Indian airlines have expanded, but empty spots remain due to geopolitics

In the last two years, Indian carriers led by IndiGo and Air India have added international flights to a plethora of destinations. This includes points in Switzerland, the Netherlands, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. As the airlines aim to make India a transit hub and expand their wings, Air India and IndiGo have helped bridge the gap between connectivity by foreign and Indian carriers.

The real expansion for Indian carriers started in 2023, with Air India a year old in the Tata fold, IndiGo in expansion mode to beat Air India and Vistara’s future is certain to be with Air India.

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Expansion of Indian carriers, one country at a time

Starting mid-2018, Jet Airways started faltering on one count at a time. Indian carriers led by IndiGo were quick to grab the opportunity. On the back of A320neo family aircraft giving a longer range along with SpiceJet’s MAX8, both carriers launched flights to Hong Kong in due course of time. This was followed by IndiGo launching flights to Vietnam, the only flights between the two countries until Vietnamese competition followed. While SpiceJet went into its own spiral during the pandemic, IndiGo came out stronger with flights to Indonesia, Central Asian countries, China, and Kenya among others. Vistara, now merged with Air India, also joined in with flights to Indonesia and Mauritius. On the other side of the pandemic, Air India returned to most places it flew to in Europe, barring Madrid, giving it a strong footing in continental Europe as well as the UK.

Blank spots remain

There still remain 17 countries where Indian carriers do not fly but carriers of those countries fly. The largest among them is Russia – where Air India had served when it was under government control but indicative of it not being very profitable based on the frequent changes it did to the equipment. Today, with the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine along with sanctions on Russia, it is difficult to operate to Russia without raising substantial costs on the insurance and operations front. While multiple carriers like Emirates and Turkish continue to operate to Russia, with the shortage of aircraft, Air India would want to prioritise operations to Russia. The other countries are Ethiopia, Poland and Egypt which have a sizable presence in India and operate to two or more places in India but no Indian carriers operate to these countries.

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There also are a plethora of countries where either operating is tricky in terms of terrain and special needs, like neighbouring Bhutan, or there is political turmoil and sanctions in place making it a difficult route to operate. This includes Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, Afghanistan — where both Air India and SpiceJet operated — and Yemen. Iraqi Airways connects Baghdad, Basra and Najaf with points in India, while Tehran is connected to both Mumbai and Delhi.

IndiGo has flights to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while no carrier flies yet to Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — all of which are connected to Delhi with non-daily flights. Central Asia and Delhi are connected, not just by ancestral and modern trade ties, but Delhi has emerged as a major centre for medical tourism.

The island of Seychelles has flights to Mumbai, and so are flights from Dar Es Salaam but no Indian carrier flies to these. In ASEAN, recently carriers of Brunei and Cambodia have started flights to India while Indian carriers wait it out for the market to become bigger.

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Two views

Air India has been focused on building a hub out of Delhi with selective expansion from Mumbai and Bengaluru. It is currently constrained by a lack of widebody aircraft in its fleet. Widebody reconfiguration and refurbishment is due, and the same is ongoing for the narrowbody fleet. Selective in expansion, Air India is currently focusing on what can feed its Delhi hub ambitions.

IndiGo, on the other hand, seems to be looking at routes where it can grow on the back of tourism, trade and new connectivity. From Penang to Langkawi on the back of visa-free travel to Denpasar in Bali, the airline is looking to expand on dense routes.

Tail Note

Over the last decade, aviation in India has changed rapidly. Airlines today are not shy of starting new routes. From Indonesia to Denmark, there are countries where Indian carriers operate and foreign carriers don’t. This includes places in Europe like Denmark and Austria along with points in Asia like Indonesia and countries like Georgia which weren’t very popular on the tourist circuit.

From here on, both Air India and IndiGo have a robust plan. Will they chase each other or the global competition? A lot depends on the induction plans and their materialisation.