The Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulted in 38 lives lost and 29 survivors.
With everyone asking what could have been behind the crash, allegations ranging from a bird strike to the aircraft being shot down by Russian air defences, are being investigated.
A time of the plane crash
The ill-fated flight departed from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, bound for Grozny, Chechnya. It was carrying 67 people, including 37 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals.
While approaching Grozny, the plane diverted hundreds of miles off course, eventually crash-landing near Aktau. The Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, confirmed the diversion was due to worsening weather conditions.
In its final moments, the aircraft struggled to maintain altitude, with Flightradar24 data showing erratic movements, including a figure-eight pattern.
Witnesses reported hearing a mid-air explosion before the crash, and survivors described shrapnel hitting the fuselage. One survivor told Euronews: “We heard an explosion, and then pieces of the plane started breaking apart. It was chaos.”
Videos of the incident show the aircraft descending rapidly, erupting into flames upon impact. The wreckage lay scattered across the crash site, with parts of the fuselage torn apart. Reports confirmed that all survivors were hospitalised, including two children, with 11 in intensive care.
The big question: Did Russia shoot down the plane?
Speculation has centered on the possibility that the plane was mistakenly shot down by Russian air defences. Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, stated:
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do. It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Russian military bloggers have pointed to evidence of shrapnel damage on the fuselage. Rybar, a popular Telegram channel, claimed that the damage to the fuselage resembled “striking elements of an anti-aircraft missile”.
“The holes look like those left after a shelling or explosion with striking elements,” said Baza, a Telegram channel with links to the Russian security services.
This aligns with reports that Ukrainian drones targeted sites in Chechnya shortly before the crash. Chechen official Khamzat Kadyrov confirmed: “All drones were successfully shot down.”
FlightRadar24 noted “strong GPS jamming” disrupted the aircraft’s navigation systems, a tactic Russia has employed in response to drone threats. This interference reportedly caused the plane to transmit faulty ADS-B data, making its actual position and trajectory unclear.
Adding weight to these claims, Euronews obtained information suggesting that surviving passengers heard an explosion, with shrapnel hitting the plane mid-air. A Russian military blogger quoted by the Azerbaijani news outlet AnewZ stated: “The damage to the aircraft suggests it may have been accidentally struck by an air-defence missile system.”
Speaking to the Orda news outlet, Kazakh aviation expert Serik Mukhtybayev also dismissed
the bird-strike theory, citing the plane’s altitude and the nature of the fuselage damage. He described external impact as the most plausible cause.
What Russia has said
The investigation is ongoing, with authorities from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia collaborating. Azerbaijan’s prosecutor general has opened a criminal inquiry, while a delegation, including Azerbaijan’s emergency situations minister and aviation experts, has been sent to Aktau for an on-site investigation.
The aircraft’s black box has been recovered and is expected to provide crucial data. Kazakh transport prosecutor Timur Suleimenov stated that the black box will offer insights into the final moments of the flight and help establish the cause of the crash.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated: “It would be wrong to speculate before the investigation concludes.”
Azerbaijan Airlines has pledged full transparency, expressing condolences to the victims’ families. Aliyev, while refraining from speculation, stated the importance of uncovering the truth. In his address, he remarked: “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing.”
What history tells us
The tragedy bears striking similarities to the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by a surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine. Grozny, the plane’s intended destination, is heavily fortified due to its strategic importance in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.
Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces play a key role in the Kremlin’s military operations, making the region a frequent target for Ukrainian drones.
This incident highlights the dangers of flying in conflict zones. Pro-war blogger Yuri Podolyaka noted that the damage seen on the wreckage is consistent with an “anti-aircraft missile system” adding “everything points to that.”
The GPS jamming reported by FlightRadar24 has been attributed to Russia’s counter-drone measures. This interference may have disrupted the plane’s navigation, contributing to its deviation from the planned route.
Among the 67 on board,
38 were killed, including citizens from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Survivors are being treated in hospitals, with several in critical condition. Kazakhstan’s emergency ministry continues efforts to identify the deceased and support their families.
The tragedy has reignited concerns over civilian aviation safety in volatile regions.
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With inputs from agencies