Russian air defense systems are likely to blame for the Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines E190 jet in Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijan Airlines E190 Crash Blamed On Russian Air Defense Systems
On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) flight J28243, took off from Baku, Azerbaijan (GYD) for Grozny, Russia (GRV) in the nominally autonomous Chechnya region. The 301-mile flight had 67 people onboard (62 passengers, five crewmembers) and was operated by an 11-year-old Embraer E190 (registration code 4K-AZ65).
Poor visibility in Grozny prompted a decision to divert to Makhachkala, Russia (MCX), about 100 miles away. That plan was scuttled after it was confirmed that the airport was closed (due to Ukrainian drone strikes earlier in the day). Instead, the flight diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan (SCO), nearly 300 miles away and across the Capsian Sea.
But as the plane attempted to land in Aktau, it crashed near the runway, bursting into flames. Videos show the aircraft steeply descending and banking toward the right. 29 souls survived, 38 perished.
Shortly after the crash, Rosaviatsia, the Russian aviation authority, blamed the deadly incident on bird strikes. However, video that has emerged of the aircraft fuselage suggests shrapnel damage. Furthermore, survivors onboard reported hearing an “explosion” before pilots lost control of the aircraft. This strongly suggests the aircraft was hit with a Russian anti-missile or other air defense system.
I heard some chump try to blame this on Ukraine earlier, so let’s address that now. Why is Ukraine striking Russia with drones? Because it was attacked by Russia first. Because its eastern region is currently occupied by Russians, as is Crimea. Don’t blame Ukraine for trying to defend itself against a nation that believes it does not have a right to exist.
And this is also exactly why you don’t try to shoot down or point lasers toward “drones” over New Jersey because sometimes what you think is a drone, is not actually a drone. I doubt Russia deliberately targeted a civilian jetliner of a peaceful neighbor in the region…but fear and paranoia stemming from its war of aggression against Ukraine create very unsavory side effects.
And of course, most importantly, my prayers go out to the friends and families of the 38 lives lost in this crash (with some survivors still in very serious condition).
Two days later, the fact pattern is still developing, but I find it ironic that Russia is demanding that no conclusions be made yet when its aviation authority came out within hours blaming the incident on a bird strike. Sometimes the chickens come home to roost…
Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65.#J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft… pic.twitter.com/rM1Q0jmMPt
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
That crew did an amazing job under the circumstances. The investigation is just getting underway, but one thing I’m very curious about here is the role of fly-by-wire in maintaining control. That’s a lot of damage to the tail and the E190 was Embraer’s first with a FBW elevator.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) December 26, 2024
The Russian Threat
As a friend commented to me yesterday, a poorly-trained Russian military with shoddy systems and idiots at the helm have now downed two commercial aircraft in a few years (not to mention KAL 007 in 1983). Anyone who flies on an airline that goes over Russian airspace is, at this point, taking huge risks.
I concur that is is just a matter of time before one of these aircraft flying over Russia is forced to divert with American, British or EU citizens on board. Russia will then have a few more people they can detain for questioning and fake trials to later use for prisoner swaps…
What a disaster to themselves and to the world Russia has become.
Does this all look familiar?
I was offline for the holiday today, but early footage from the crash scene this morning immediately reminded me of the MH17 damage pattern from 2014. This photo was taken by @WSJ in Petropavlivka, in eastern Ukraine after the Malaysian 777-200 was shot down. pic.twitter.com/ktoBSUtFQ1
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) December 26, 2024
CONCLUSION
A Russian air defense system is the most likely explanation for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines E190 jet in Kazakhstan on Wednesday. While Russia is quick to deny this and blame bird strikes, earlier Ukrainian drone activity in the area likely prompted the accidental downing of this jet, killing 38 onboard.
