Growing evidence now strongly suggests that Russia likely shot down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 with a surface-to-air missile. Here is what we know so far…
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 : A Christmas Tragedy
On 25 December 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 was on a scheduled flight from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia, when it was rerouted to the Uytash Airport in Dagestan, but it was unable to land.
The Embraer E190AR aircraft then flew across the Caspian Sea to Aktau in Kazakhstan. At 9:35 AM AZT, the crew sent out a distress call by squawking 7700 on its transponder, and reported a failure of the control system, and asked for an emergency landing at the Aktau International Airport.
The aircraft completed two turns at the airport, and as it attempted its third turn, communications between the pilots and the air control tower was lost. Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 then struck the ground at 11:30 AM AQTT, tumbling and exploding as it broke into two sections. While the front section was destroyed by the explosion and the resulting fire, the tail section remained mostly intact, albeit upside down.
Of the 67 people – 62 passengers and 5 crew members, flying on Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, 38 people died, but 29 survived. Both pilots and one flight attendant died, but two flight attendants survived. Eleven people remain in critical conditions.
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Why Russia likely shot down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243
Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Rosaviatsia, has suggested that the crash may have been caused by a bird strike (like American Airlines 1722). The pilots also initially believed that they were hit by a bird.
However, growing evidence now strongly suggests that Flight J2-8243 was likely shot down by Russia using a surface-to-air missile, in circumstances eerily similar to MH17 ten years ago.
Let’s take a look at what the evidence currently shows…
Survivors reported an explosion
AZAL 8243 made three attempts to land at Grozny in heavy fog. On its third attempt, survivors reported an explosion and sharpnel hitting the aircraft. This was what one survivor told Russia Today:
Subhonkul Rakhimov : The third time, something exploded. There was an explosion — I wouldn’t say it was inside the plane. Where I was sitting, the [aircraft] skin next to me flew off.
The explosion also sent sharpnel that tore through his life jacket, which Rakhimov showed to Russia Today in the screenshot below.
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Passenger video shows damage to wing’s flap track fairing
A video that was purportedly recorded by one of the passengers showed that oxygen masks were displayed and flight jackets inflated. But most critically – the video shows damage to the flap track fairing of the left wing.
It would be impossible for a bird strike to cause damage to the end of the fairing. But it would be consistent with sharpnel damage from a missile that exploded to the rear and left side of Flight J2-8243.
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Tail section had extensive sharpnel damage
Miraculously, the tail section survived the impact mostly intact. Investigators immediately noticed that the tail section was peppered with puncture holes. Again, it would be impossible for bird strikes to cause such damage to the tail section.
According to aviation and military experts, the pattern suggests sharpnel damage from a missile. That might have caused a loss of hydraulic systems for the tail’s control surfaces, which could explain why the aircraft was flying at varying altitudes and speeds.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the fragments of Flight 8243 indicated a 90-99% probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.
Osprey Flight Solution – an aviation security firm, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system“.
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Azerbaijan officials believe a Russian missile was responsible
Four Azerbaijani officials with knowledge of the preliminary findings of the investigation told Reuters that “Russian air defences” was responsible for the crash.
An Azerbaijani Member of Parliament, Rasim Musabekov, told Azerbaijani news agency Turan that Flight 8243 was fired on over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.
One source close to the investigation stated that, “While there’s no indication it was intentional, Baku expects Russia to acknowledge responsibility for the downing of the Azerbaijani aircraft“.
Russian media claims AZAL 8243 was hit by air defence
Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which is close to Russian security services, said air defence teams loyal to Chechen leader Kadyrov in Naursky district likely attacked the plane.
The pilot mistook the strong blow to the plane for a collision with a flock of birds. n reality, the damage indicates that, most likely, a missile fired by air defence systems exploded near the plane.
According to the materials we have obtained, that very strike occurred approximately 18 kilometres [11 miles] north, northwest of the airport in Grozny, over the Naursky district at an altitude of 2,400 metres [7,875ft].
According to information from open sources, several military units are located in this area, including those with air defence systems. It is known that after the recent [Ukrainian] UAV attacks, several Pantsirs were also deployed in Chechnya.
Russian military expert suggests AZAL 8243 was hit by Pantsir-S1
Yan Matveyev, a Russian military expert, told Current Time TV, that Azerbaijan Flight J2-8243 could have been hit by a missile from the Pantsir-S1 air-defence system.
He speculated that the Pantsir S-1 crew may have mistaken the plane for a UAV, due to a failure in the system’s friend-or-foe identification system.
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Russia admits AZAL 8243 was diverted due to drone attack
On Friday, 27 December 2024, Russia’s aviation chief Dmitry Yadrov said that a “Ukrainian drone attack” was taking place in the area, when Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 was attempting to land in Grozny. Russia’s defence ministry earlier reported downing 59 Ukrainian drones that day.
I would like to note that the situation on this day and at these hours in the area of Grozny airport was very difficult. At that time, Ukrainian combat drones were launching terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure in the cities of Grozny and Vladikavkaz.
In addition, there was dense fog in the area of Grozny airport. … The pilots made two attempts to land the plane in Grozny, which were unsuccessful.
According to Yadrov, AZAL 8243 attempted landing when a “Carpet” plan was in effect, which closed the skies above Grozny to all aircraft which must immediately land or withdraw from the area.
This marks a change in the Russian narrative, from a bird strike to a possible missile strike, echoing what happened to MH17 in 2014. This may preface an actual acknowledgement by Russia that it was responsible for the crash of Flight J2-8243.
AZAL 8243 was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing
AZAL 8243 was also exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing while flying near Grozny. This is consistent with the assessment that the aircraft was misidentified as a Ukrainian drone, and hit by a Russian missile.
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Dr. Adrian Wong has been writing about tech and science since 1997, even publishing a book with Prentice Hall called Breaking Through The BIOS Barrier (ISBN 978-0131455368) while in medical school.
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