On December 25 the Russian Military hit an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane with a missile. The Russians mistook the AZAL airliner for an enemy aircraft. The plane was not destroyed but was badly damaged. There was panic in the cabin.

The AZAL pilot requested permission to make an emergency landing in Grozny, Russia. Russian air traffic control refused permission saying the situation in Grozny was complicated.

The AZAL flight was diverted to the nearest available airport: Aktau, Kazakhstan. AZAL flew over the Caspian Sea and made an emergency landing. Local people caught the landing on the video camera. The plane went on fire as soon as it landed.

The pilot and co-pilot were killed as were many of the passengers. Half the passengers survived. The fuselage showed clear signs of being hit by shrapnel.

The pilot has been posthumously hailed for his heroism and professionalism in managing the landing which saved the lives of at least some of the passengers. Russia did not confirm that its armed forces had fired at the plane.

Russia wanted to send air crash investigators. Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan refused. It was rare dissent from two former Soviet republics which usually give Moscow what it wants.

Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia are at the height of their cordiality. Putin made a state visit to Baku only a few months ago. He lauded the ‘family manner’ in which he was received. Azerbaijan maintains strict neutrality on the Ukraine War. It has imposed no sanctions on Russia. Azerbaijan has made handsome profits from facilitating Russia’s sanctions evasion. Moreover, many Russians change planes in Azerbaijan to fly on to destinations in Western countries because sanctions mean there are no flights between Russia and 40 of the 45 countries in Europe.

The evidence that the Russians shot the AZAL plane was irrefragable. Russia tends to deny its wrongdoing no matter how absolutely overwhelming the evidence. However, the Kremlin was loathe to offend Azerbaijan. AZAL and El Al (the Israeli airline) halted all flights to and from Russia until the situation was resolved. They did not want their planes to be shot down.

On December 28 President Putin issued a statement for the plane being struck by a Russian missile. He apologised for what he termed a tragedy. He did not say that Russia was responsible.

Was this cock up or a conspiracy? It is surely an innocent mistake. There is no reason for Russia to want to shoot down an Azerbaijan civilian plane. Relations between the two nations are very cordial. Moreover, some of the passengers were Russian.

There have been significant Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russia. Some have hit the Chechnya Region near where the AZAL plane was struck. The AZAL plane was misidentified as a hostile aircraft.

Shooting down innocent planes which are mistakenly believed to be enemy aircraft is not unknown. The Iranians shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane several years ago. Pro-Russian terrorists in Ukraine shot down Malaysian Airlines in 2014. In 1988 the USS Valenciennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner.

Thus far Russia has not blamed the incident on Ukraine or the United States. It is probable that they will say that ultimately it is the fault of Ukraine.

Dozens of countries have forbidden all Russian airlines and Belarusian airlines from flying over their airspace. These are the 27 EU countries, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, the USA, Canada and the United Kingdom. In response Belarus and Russia have banned airlines from those nations from flying over their airspace.

Most aeroplanes in Russia are bought or leased from companies in sanctioning companies. Russia has stolen the leased planes. Rossiya, Aeroflot, S7, Urals Airlines, Pobedy and other airlines in Russia cannot buy spare parts or have their planes serviced. They have managed to keep flying for almost 3 years. Some planes have been grounded because they have lost 40% of their destinations. The airlines have cannibalised some planes for spare parts. They have been able to work around sanctions by having friendly countries order spare parts for the planes from the USA. An Azerbaijani company will order a spare part and then sell it to Russia for a markup.

Nonetheless, Russia’s Aeroflot and other airlines have been cutting corners with safety. It is a matter of time before there is a major crash. It is surprising that more airlines have not gone bust.

The Russian tourism sector is down to 10% of its prewar total figures. Many agencies and hotels have folded. The tourists now are mostly from India and China. They tend to spend less than Western tourists.

Westerners stay away because it takes a long time to get a visa because so many Russian diplomats have been expelled from Western countries. Moreover, Westerners are warned not to go to Russia by their governments. They say innocent people may be imprisoned for years on bogus charges of espionage. American, German, British and other Western tourists are stopped in airports on arrival and questioned for hours by the FSB (Russian domestic intelligence). Their mobile phones and computers are taken. The FSB demand the passwords. They go through them for hours to see there were no suspicious searches.

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