More than one in four flights operated by major Australian airlines in 2024 arrived at their destinations late, with local punctuality rates lagging significantly behind average carriers in comparable countries.
Experts say a lack of competition in Australia’s airline market is a likely factor behind the prevalence of delays, and that the Albanese government missed a golden opportunity to nudge local carriers into performing better when it decided to omit a cash compensation scheme for delayed and cancelled flights from its landmark aviation reforms.
Global data collated by aviation analytics firm Cirium, released on Thursday, found that Australia’s three major airlines – Qantas, budget subsidiary Jetstar and Virgin Australia – recorded on-time performance rates of 73.85%, 73.39% and 72.70% respectively.
The on-time performance rates – which measure the share of an airline’s flights that land at their destination within 15 minutes of their scheduled arrival time – lay bare how frequently Australian passengers are hit with delays compared with foreign carriers.
Among global airlines, Aeromexico – Mexico’s flag carrier – had the highest on-time performance in 2024 with 86.70%, followed by Saudia at 86.35%, Delta Air Lines at 83.46%, Latam at 82.89% and Qatar Airways at 82.83%.
Qantas, with a score of 73.85%, lags behind airlines that also operate domestic and international services and target a similar section of foreign markets, such as Delta as well as United Airlines with an 80.93% on-time performance rate, American Airlines with 77.78%, as well as European and Asian competitors.
Within the Asia-Pacific region, Qantas scraped into the top 10 airlines for on-time performance, far behind Japan Airlines on 80.90%, All Nippon Airways on 80.62%, Singapore Airlines on 78.67% and Air New Zealand on 77.58%.
Jetstar, with its score of 73.39%, trails low-cost carriers from Spain, Brazil, Japan, the US, Norway, Indonesia and Thailand, which were represented in the top 10 most punctual airlines in that category.
Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin’s averaged ratings were all markedly boosted by their international operations, with delayed arrivals on domestic services more common.
Data from domestic services only collated by the department of transport found that in November just 68.4% of flights arrived at their destinations on time, with Qantas’ on-time arrival score of 68%, and Virgin’s of 62.7%.
The domestic on-time arrival rates of Australian airlines remain stubbornly lower than the pre-Covid long term average of 80.7%. Carriers have failed to return a quality of service to a sector whose workforce was broadly decimated during the Covid pandemic and by industry-specific restrictions that ground domestic air activity to a near-halt.
The data represents what has been a turbulent year for Australian aviation, following the collapse of low-cost startup Bonza and turmoil at Rex Airlines that saw the carrier enter administration and drop its jet operations between metropolitan cities that had forced the larger airlines into more competitive pricing.
As of the end of the year, Qantas Group and Virgin’s duopoly had surged to 98% market dominance, with the consumer watchdog finding average air fares shot up by 13.3% in the months after Bonza and Rex’s demise.
The Albanese government also released its much-anticipated aviation white paper in August, which paved the way for policy reforms to better serve passengers and protect the industry that had been on its knees and reliant on government subsidies during Covid.
However, in December, Labor bowed to pressure from Qantas and other airlines advocating against laws that would force them to pay cash compensation to passengers whose flights are delayed or cancelled.
The omission of a compensation scheme in the government’s draft aviation customer rights charter followed claims from airlines such as Qantas that compensation rules would force them to preempt costs and increase air fares.
The omission means advocacy groups’ longtime hopes for an European Union style compensation scheme for Australian passengers lie in the Coalition’s “pay on delay” bill.
Research of the EU scheme has found its introduction lowered the mean arrival delay of flights subject to the rules by about four minutes, and that regulated flights are 5% more likely to arrive on time.
Piotr Śpiewanowski, assistant professor at the Polish Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economics and co-author of the research, stressed that the improvements were averages from all flights, and that the potential benefits a compensation scheme can bring in reducing average delays are even more pronounced in markets with low competition such as Australia.
He noted research that aviation markets with high competition such as the US generally have fewer delays.
Regarding Qantas’ warning it would have pre-emptively passed on the costs of a compensation scheme to customers, Śpiewanowski – who has also researched how firms pass on costs related to regulations – said resulting price hikes are often smaller than anticipated.
“It is evident that delay compensation regulations impose additional costs on airlines … [but] delay compensation schemes also create incentives for airlines to minimise delays, provided the cost of doing so is lower than the expected compensation payouts,” he told Guardian Australia.
While weather and passengers will always be responsible for some delays, Śpiewanowski said airlines have plenty of capability to reduce delays but may not choose to without the nudge of a compensation scheme.
These include improving aircraft handling operations, better preparing for crew schedule disruptions, increasing the availability of replacement planes, or even adjusting flight schedules to allow for more realistic flight times.
“These strategies reduce delays, helping airlines lower the financial burden of the compensation scheme and, ultimately, minimising the additional costs passed on to passengers,” he said.