For many years, only United Airlines flew between the US and Vietnam, routing via Hong Kong, although other carriers sometimes had a one-stop service. History was made in late 2021, when Vietnam Airlines’
Ho Chi Minh City to San Francisco operation became the first regular non-stop service between the two nations.

Three years later, Vietnam Airlines has hinted that wants to add three more North American destinations, among others elsewhere. As usual, no timeframe was stated. However, there is a good chance at least one of the trio will be announced this year.

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These destinations are expected

Writing on LinkedIn, Vietnam Airlines disclosed that the following cities will likely happen. They are predictable. While no details were provided, they would all be operated from Ho Chi Minh City, like San Francisco, as each market has significantly more point-to-point traffic than Hanoi. There is also connecting traffic via Ho Chi Minh City across Southeast Asia.

All the markets cover a vast distance. While Los Angeles would cover even more distance than San Francisco, Seattle and Vancouver would be notably shorter. The rub is that, as the following table shows, they are much smaller markets.

Long routes need strong premium traffic to work economically. Like other markets that mainly revolve around diaspora and tourism, Vietnam’s averages tend to be lower than those that do not.

For example, Ho Chi Minh City-Vancouver’s average one-way fare for all passengers in all cabins on all airlines is $830 (including a fuel surcharge but excluding taxes), which might seem decent. However, Vancouver-Seoul, for instance, is $898—yet it covers 30% less distance each way, meaning it is much higher-yielding. It also saves enormous money on trip costs.

A closeup of a Vietnam Airlines A350-900

Photo: fifg | Shutterstock

The situation did not stop Vietnam Airlines from launching San Francisco flights. The average fare of $791 is lower than that of its three proposed markets, although passengers would pay a small premium for its time-saving non-stop service.

Air Canada raised eyebrows when it introduced Vancouver-Bangkok flights in December 2022. The very long route now has a daily service at times. While about the same distance as Vancouver-Ho Chi Minh City, the average fare is much higher: $991. Air Canada’s apparent success has helped it launch Vancouver-Manila, which begins in April, and United is considering Vietnam or Thailand flights from San Francisco.

Ho Chi Minh City to…

Roundtrip point-to-point passengers*

Comments

Avg. one-way fare** (fare per nautical mile)

Los Angeles

261,000

Vietnam’s largest North American market. Previously had United flights via Hong Kong. The US’s largest unserved long-haul market

$803 ($0.113)

Seattle

64,000

Seattle’s second-largest unserved long-haul market after Delhi, which Air India has repeatedly said is coming

$799 ($0.124)

Vancouver

60,000

Vancouver’s second-largest unserved long-haul market after Tehran, which obviously won’t materialize

$830 ($0.130)

* 12 months to October 2024

** Across all passengers in all cabins on all airlines, including a fuel surcharge, which is kept by the airline but excludes taxes

VN US and Canada

Image: GCMap

The world’s 24th longest non-stop route

Ho Chi Minh City-Los Angeles is bound to happen sooner or later. Given the market size and similar fare to San Francisco, albeit a slightly longer distance, it seems an obvious addition for Vietnam Airlines.

It would cover 7,099 nautical miles (13,147 km) each way, marginally more than Emirates’ Dubai to Houston Intercontinental operation but slightly less than Philippine Airlines’ Manila-Toronto link. It’d become the world’s 24th longest non-stop service, although American’s newly introduced Dallas/Fort Worth-Brisbane service would still be longer.

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