The European Aviation Safety Agency has issued a recommendation for airlines not to fly over Russia west of the Urals. Since the carriers of the European Union do not operate flights to the Russian Federation anyway, this instruction does not have a direct impact on tourists now. However, indirectly, in the medium term, it may still negatively affect air traffic on the continent.
According to the EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) bulletin, from January 9 to July 31, at least airlines were advised “not to operate flights in the airspace of the Russian Federation located west of 60° east longitude at all altitudes and flight levels.” The 60th meridian passes through Nizhny Tagil.
HOW CAN EASA’S RECOMMENDATION NOT TO FLY OVER RUSSIA AFFECT TOURISTS?
What’s important here is that this is exactly a “recommendation”. Not a “ban” and not a “limitation”. EASA includes 27 countries, and airlines from none of them fly to Russia right now (since their airspace has been closed since 2022).
However, the document also mentions “third-country operators authorized by EASA,” and aviation experts remind that some third-party carriers do choose to follow the requirements and rules of the European agency.
“This is a warning in the style of “do not stick your fingers in the socket – it may cause an electric shock,” but not a ban. The airlines of Turkey and the United Arab Emirates listen to EASA, but following the recommendations is the sovereign right and decision of the aviation authorities of each individual state,” emphasizes the founder of the flight safety and certification service RunAvia Andrey Patrakov.
The first thing this recommendation may affect for airlines that operate flights to Russia is the cost of insurance for aircraft flying over Russia. Insurers can either refuse to insure them, or increase the cost of this service, which will lead to an increase in the price of air tickets abroad. But it is important to understand that air carriers flying specifically to Russia have been facing insurance issues of varying complexity for almost two years and have been solving them if they find it beneficial for themselves.
Now the situation may only worsen somewhat and/or spread to those whose planes do not land in the Russian Federation, but are in our airspace on their way to Europe.
Mr. Patrakov explains the logic of EASA using the example of the disaster of the Azerbaijani Embraer.
“The incident occurred in the air and such warnings are issued. After all, a plane can crash on the territory of the EU, and this is already a direct threat to people in the EASA area of responsibility,” says the expert.
WHICH AIRLINES MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE EASA RECOMMENDATION
Another question is who exactly flies over the territory of the Russian Federation and the EU.
Firstly, it is Air Serbia, which has already limited flights to Russia and will not operate flights to Sochi and Kazan from the end of January (but flights to Moscow remain). Secondly, these are some CIS air carriers. For example, Uzbekistan Airways from Tashkent to Paris and Frankfurt am Main, however, these flights are not even operated daily – this is a very small passenger traffic.
But planes to Central Europe from Turkey, India, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan or the Middle East do not fly over Russia. For purely geographical reasons. For understanding, technically the conditional route “Kabul – Helsinki” could run “west of the 60th meridian”. But none of the airlines uses it.
But the main focus is on Chinese airlines. They are, with a high degree of probability, the main addressees of the EASA recommendation, which appeared not only “against the background of worsening flight safety issues,” but also along with another escalation of the discussion about the “unfair” exploitation of airspace.
CHINESE AIRLINES ARE PREVENTING EUROPEAN AIRLINES FROM MAKING MONEY
European aviation authorities have repeatedly “expressed concern” that Chinese carriers to Europe fly on a short route over the Russian Federation, while European carriers to China do not.
Western airlines have reduced the volume of flights to China, and Scandinavian Airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic have suspended flights on some routes. As recently as January 8, the reputable Financial Times published another article about what European airlines are losing and what Chinese airlines are acquiring.
The volume of available seats between China and Western Europe for Air China, China Eastern and China Southern increased by 18% by October, and the number of scheduled flights of these airlines to the UK, Spain and Italy increased by 25-45% compared to the same period in 2019. The tariffs of the “Chinese” are 5-35% lower than those of the “Europeans”.
“European carriers are simply uncompetitive,” David Yu, an aviation industry expert at New York University in Shanghai, is quoted as saying.
Mr. Patrakov also believes that the current situation could potentially “slow down” Chinese airlines, which have gained a serious competitive advantage over European ones.
Taking into account the volume of transportation of Chinese airlines and others, which could theoretically be affected by the EASA recommendation, it can be assumed that it will be the Chinese air carriers that will be most affected.
At the moment, there is no clarity on how the Chinese aviation authorities will react. But the risks that the recommendation will directly affect Russian tourists are minimal, except for those who want to get to Europe from the Far East through China.
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