Russia will face a decline in air travel this year due to a growing shortage of aircraft with domestic airlines. According to the forecast from the Aeroprogress research center, domestic flight volumes will drop by 6.1% compared to 2024, totaling 79.5 million passengers, while international flights will decrease by 6.7%, to 25.2 million people.

The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) expects a smaller decline in air traffic: a 1.5% drop on domestic routes to 83.3 million passengers, and a 2% decrease on international routes to 26.4 million. However, according to data from January to February, air travel remained at the same level as the same period in 2024. Last year, passenger traffic with Russian airlines reached its highest since 2019, totaling 111.7 million people, a 5.9% increase compared to 2023. This growth was due to the more intensive use of the existing fleet. Rosaviatsiya noted that due to repair challenges, companies had to decommission 58 aircraft in 2024. As a result, the total fleet of Russian airlines decreased to 1,138 aircraft and 920 helicopters.

 

 

Domestic airlines cannot replenish their fleets with foreign aircraft, as the US, EU, and other countries have banned the supply of ready-made planes and parts to Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The largest global aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, have stopped technical support for existing planes. As a result, Russian airlines had to repair Western-made aircraft themselves, resorting to “cannibalization” – disassembling one plane for parts to repair others. At the same time, two-thirds of Russia’s airline fleet consists of foreign planes, which account for 90% of passenger traffic within the country. About 150 aircraft are SSJ-100, which are also heavily dependent on Western components.

In response to sanctions against civil aviation, Russian authorities announced an ambitious program to revive the domestic aircraft industry. It was planned that by 2030, airlines would receive more than 1,000 domestic aircraft. However, over three years of war, aircraft factories have produced only five planes: three Tu-214s and two Il-96-300s.

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