Summary
- The aviation industry is predicted to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2024, with passenger traffic reaching 9.4 billion globally next year.
- Some countries, like Mexico and Colombia, have had faster recoveries and are returning to growth mode, while others, like China, are still below pre-pandemic levels.
- The Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to lead the recovery, surpassing its 2019 levels by 110.5% in 2024, fueled by strong recoveries in countries like Mexico, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil.
The aviation industry worldwide is set to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2024, according to the latest air travel outlook released by Airports Council International (ACI). The airport body expects passenger traffic to reach 9.4 billion passengers globally next year.
A lengthy recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic created a global impact on the airline industry, as demand softened to unheard levels when borders closed. The industry has been slowly recovering over the last three years, with some countries having faster bounce-backs and returning to growth mode (such as Mexico and Colombia). Others (for example, China) are still well below pre-pandemic traffic levels.
Photo: iamlukyeee/Shutterstock.
ACI, the trade association of the world’s airports with 1925 airports in 171 countries, believes next year will be the year the airline and airport industry will finally recover from the pandemic. In a statement, ACI said 2024 “is expected to be a milestone for global passenger traffic recovery as it reaches 9.4 billion passengers, surpassing 2019, which welcomed 9.2 billion passengers (102.5% of the 2019 level).”
ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said upside factors that benefit the recovery include the reopening of the Chinese market and surge in domestic travel, supply chain disruptions gradually subsiding, and inflation slowing down worldwide.
What could have been
Had the COVID-19 pandemic never happened, the airline industry would have kept growing in the last few years. ACI estimated that, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global passenger volume was going to reach 10.5 billion passengers in 2023.
The pandemic stopped the growth of the industry. While it is set to recover next year, challenges remain, going from economic uncertainty to rising fuel prices and lingering inflation, which is still high in some countries.
Latin America leading the recovery
The Latin America and Caribbean region is forecasted to be the first region globally to surpass its 2019 levels. Fueled by strong recoveries in countries such as Mexico, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil, the region is estimated to reach 707 million passengers or 102.9% of the 2019 level. In 2024, the region is expected to welcome 759 million passengers or 110.5% of the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
A few countries, such as Peru, still remain well below pre-pandemic traffic figures but are slowly recovering.
So what about other regions globally?
Africa
The African region is expected to steadily increase in the next few years, reaching 221 million passengers in 2023 (96.3% of pre-pandemic levels). In 2024, it will get 253 million passengers, or 110.6%, fueled by the Egyptian, Moroccan, and Tunisian markets.
Photo: Markus Mainka/Shutterstock.
Asia-Pacific
This region has the slowest recovery globally. ACI expects the region to have 2.9 billion passengers by the end of 2023, or 87.3% of the 2019 level. With the uncertainty going forward (challenges in overseas tourism and looming economic concerns), Asia-Pacific expects to reach 3.4 billion passengers or 99.5% of the 2019 levels in 2024.
Europe
By the end of 2023, around 2.3 billion passengers are expected in Europe, or 95.5% of pre-pandemic figures. This will further increase next year, while at a slower pace, to around 2.5 billion passengers, or 101.4% of 2019 levels.
Middle East
This region is predicted to reach 394 million passengers, or 96.8% of the 2019 level. In 2024, the projected number is 429 million passengers, or 105.4% of the 2019 levels, although the forecast may be impacted by economic turmoil in neighboring markets.
North America
By the end of 2023, the North American region is estimated to reach about 99.8% of 2019 levels or 20 billion passengers. Driven by domestic travel, growth for the next couple of years is expected to continue at a slower pace. In 2024, the region will have 2.1 billion passengers, or 103.7%.
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