Summary
- Global aviation is on the path to recovery from the pandemic-related downturn.
- While most regions have surpassed pre-pandemic ASK numbers in their domestic markets, international markets are still catching up.
- China’s aviation industry faces challenges due to border restrictions and Western sanctions.
In the last three years, global operators have been aiming for a complete recovery from the pandemic-related downturn. While most domestic markets have witnessed substantial growth, international markets are still on the path to recovery. Airbus released the Global Market Forecast for the next two decades, showing the aviation recovery in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) since 2019.
Post-pandemic recovery by region
Total passenger kilometers performed in 2019 was 8,700 billion, a nearly 5% increase from the previous year. As you all know, the world saw a sharp decline in ASK with the pandemic-related downturn. In the years following that, global passenger traffic has been on the path to recovery. While most regions have surpassed the 2019 numbers in their respective areas, some haven’t yet matched the pre-pandemic numbers.
The ASK in the North American domestic market has surpassed the 2019 numbers by over 2%. Fortunately, the international market is now outperforming pre-pandemic levels by just 1%. Latin America saw a significant increase in domestic demand. The passenger capacity rose rather quickly, and the domestic ASK is not just back to the 2019 levels but up over 14%. Latin America’s international ASK is still in the recovery phase, with about 92% of ASK recovered compared to 2019 numbers.
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Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) also saw an excellent recovery in passenger traffic and subsequent availability of flights. The domestic market in the region fully recovered with a 1% further growth in ASK. The international market is, while going strong, still marginally behind, with 90% of 2019’s ASK offered.
Africa and the Middle Eastern markets saw a much higher upside in ASK in their respective domestic markets. Both regions surpassed the ASK numbers from 2019, with an additional 12% growth in the domestic markets. Post-pandemic ASKs in the international sector have also caught up to 2019 levels, with a further 4% growth in both regions. Africa and the Middle East are considered emerging markets for commercial air travel and cargo; hence, the development is substantial compared to other global areas.
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The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to have certain border restrictions in place, affecting international travel years after the start of the pandemic. ASK in the PRC region is, unfortunately, down 59% compared to 2019 levels. While some recovery is evident, the international market is way behind in terms of flight offerings.
It is noteworthy that China has faced numerous sanctions from the West, which is also a limiting factor in its recovery. However, not all is negative regarding aviation in the country; domestic ASK has surpassed 2019 levels by a considerable margin. The PRC has seen an ASK growth of 26% compared to pre-pandemic numbers. Large Chinese carriers that once relied heavily on international passengers are pivoting to cater to the domestic market.
Photo: Markus Mainka | Shutterstock
The Asia-Pacific region has seen a complete recovery in the domestic sector, plus a 1% growth in ASK compared to the pre-pandemic levels. The international offerings are still on the path to recovery, with approximately 81% of the market (in terms of ASK) recovered.
What are your thoughts on the recovery of ASK since the pandemic? Tell us in the comments section.
Source: Airbus GMF