Summary
- The future of the NGAD program, specifically the manned fighter, is uncertain and facing challenges.
- The cost of developing and procuring NGAD jets is high, potentially impacting the program’s future.
- The replacement of the F-22 Raptor by NGAD remains unclear, with Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach avoiding direct answers.
US Air Force Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach has stated that the manned sixth generation fighter of the larger Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program might not replace the F-22 Raptor. This raises many questions about the program, including the future of the US Air Force and how it intends to maintain its considerable technological edge well into the future.
NGAD: A manned fighter with a murky future
There is growing speculation that the NGAD (or at least the program’s manned fighter jet) is headed for troubled waters or, as The War Zone puts it, “withering support” and a “murky” future. Previously, NGAD had been thought to replace the F-22 Raptors (and the F-15 Strike Eagles) and complement the F-35s through the 2030s and 2040s.
Photo: Mike Mareen | Shutterstock
“Right now, frankly, there isn’t an F-22 replacement. The F-22 is a fantastic aircraft. We’re actually planning several upgrades to the jet as we speak, and there is no official replacement to the F-22 right now.” Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach
However, it is too early to discuss the failure or cancelation of the manned component of the NGAD program. As The War Zone states, “Still, Wilsbach said he expects the NGAD aircraft downselect will happen this year. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are in the running for the contract award.”
Related
How Much Does It Cost To Develop US Air Force 6th Generation Fighter Jets?
An individual NGAD fighter is expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars dwarfing the cost of an F-35.
Many unanswered questions
The F-22 Raptor was developed as a replacement for the older F-15 family. However, cost overruns coupled with the collapse of the USSR led to the program being canceled prematurely. This forced the Air Force to keep the F-15 family in production. The F-15EX Eagle II variant of the F-15 family has just entered service, while production of the F-22 ended a decade and a half ago.
Photo: US Air Force
While the F-15EX Eagle II is a great fighter aircraft, it is built on an old platform and is not a fifth-generation aircraft. The F-22 Raptors are excellent in their air dominance role but are limited to only around 120 in combat service (excluding those used for training, etc.).
If NGAD is not a replacement for the F-22 Raptor, then what is? If it is canceled, will the Air Force ever develop another manned fighter jet? The answers to these questions appear murky, and only time will tell. The Air Force has been trying to retire 32 Block 20s of its F-22 fleet (these are built more for training than combat).
Wilsbach sidestepped questions on whether NGAD was the replacement for the F-22, saying, “As most everybody knows, we’re in the source selection for the NGAD, and so it’s not wise, and my lawyers have advised me not to talk too much about NGAD. There’s a lot of things that are not in the public sphere that we’ve been working on for a while, and we’ll continue to expand that. The part of it is the CCA [Collaborative Combat Aircraft] that is in the public sphere.”
Photo: Mike Mareen | Shutterstock
There is speculation that the high cost of the NGAD-manned fighter program will lead to its demise as the Air Force is pressured to spend limited funds on its many other projects and modernization. NGAD jets are expected to cost around $300 million apiece (although the Air Force is looking for ways to reduce that number). One way or the other, NGAD fighters would be procured in low numbers by historic US Air Force standards.