Summary
- Russia’s Su-34 Fullback is crucial for air force operations in Ukraine.
- Confirmed loss of 35 Su-34 aircrafts during the ongoing war.
- Estimates suggest around 100 Su-34s remain in Russian fleet as of 2024.
One of the most surprising outcomes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the degree to which the on-paper-powerful Russian Air Force has been woefully ineffective. The Soviet Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker family of fighter jets (which include Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 variants) forms the backbone of the Russian combat fleet. Of these, the Su-34 Fullback is perhaps the most noteworthy. But how many of the Russian Air Force’s valuable Su-34 fighter bombers have it lost so far in the war in Ukraine?
Su-34 – a backbone of the Russian Air Force
While much is said of Russian jets’ superb aerobatic capabilities and rugged airframes, that hasn’t enabled them to prevail in the skies over Ukraine after 2.5 years of war. That said, the famous cobra maneuver would be an epic way to stop and face the air-to-air missile looking death in the face.
Photo: JetKat l Shutterstock
Ukraine’s dense (but Soviet-era) air defense drove the Russian Air Force back in the early days of the war. In the Battle of Kyiv, the Russian Air Force was taking unsustainable losses somewhat reminiscent of the Battle of Britain. While Ukraine’s Air Force is now severely battered, against all expectations, it remains standing and in the fight.
The Su-34 first flew in 1990 and entered service in 2014. It is designed for tactical deployment against ground and naval targets for attack, interdiction, and tactical bombing roles. It is intended to be the future of the Russian Air Force and eventually replace the Su-24 tactical strike fighter and the Tu-22M strategic bomber.
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Su-34 Fullback in numbers: |
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Eve of war fleet: |
140 |
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Number produced per National Interest: |
Approx 155 (with around 7 prototypes) |
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Number lost per Oryx: |
35 |
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Number lost per Warspotting: |
24 (combat losses only) |
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Remaining per Military Balance: |
112 (2023 estimate) |
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Remaining per FlightGlobal: |
134 (2023 estimate) |
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Remaining per Ukraine: |
Over 100 (April 2024 estimate) |
According to Defense News, the Russian Air Force is forced to rely ever more on its limited but modern fleet of Su-34/30/35 fighter jets as the war progresses. Older airframes (like the Su-27, Su-25, MiG-31, and MiG-29) appear worn out and end their useful lives, putting more stress on Russia’s limited number of Fullbacks. These older aircraft appear increasingly to be used in limited roles (like patrols or carrying stand-off munitions) or not at all.
Su-34s confirmed lost by open source intelligence
The open-source Oryx blog has independently confirmed the loss of 127 Russian fixed-wing aircraft so far in the war (some of these are accidents and friendly fire incidents). The actual number is bound to be significantly higher as not all losses will be independently verified. Furthermore, drone strikes may destroy or heavily damage aircraft on the ground and in hangars not visible on satellite imagery.
Of the 127 aircraft lost, 35 were Su-34s (one of which was a Su-34M). Of the 35 losses, four were destroyed in non-combat losses, and another four were assessed to be damaged. The more conservative open-source blog, Warspotting, counts 24 Su-34s lost (Warspotting doesn’t count non-combat losses, but for this article, a loss is a loss).
Ukraine has claimed many more Su-34 shoot-downs. For example, over a 13-day period in the month of February 2024, it claimed to have shot down 10 Su-34s; however, few, if any, of these were independently confirmed with any level of certainty.
Su-34 production
Before the start of the war, Russia is widely believed to have had 140 Su-34 fighter bombers in service. Writing in June 2024, the National Interest estimated that around 155 Su-34s had been produced (including prototypes). This would suggest that around 148 aircraft have been produced (this is an estimate and some sources claim somewhat higher production numbers). This means around 25% of Russia’s Su-34 fleet has been confirmed destroyed in the war in Ukraine.
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Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback |
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|---|---|
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First flew: |
1990 |
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Entered service: |
2014 |
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Role: |
Fighter-bomber |
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Crew: |
2 |
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Hardpoints/payload: |
12 hardpoints/26,000–31,000 lbs |
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Powerplant: |
2 × Saturn AL-31FM1 afterburning turbofan engines |
Despite sanctions, Russia is still producing Su-34s (although its fighter jet production appears constrained). Binkov estimated 8 to 10 were delivered in 2022 and another 8 to 10 in 2023. The think tank IISS estimated at least 6 were delivered in 2023. Defence24 suggests that production decreased from 10 in 2022 to just six in 2023.
Number of Su-34 remaining
Estimating the number of Su-34s remaining is difficult – many are likely not in an operational condition. Some recent Su-34s destroyed in Ukrainian drone strikes on airbases appear to have not been operational (one was even apparently lacking engines).
Military Balance listed 112 Su-34s remaining for 2023, FlightGlobal listed 134 for 2023, and the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense assesses Russia has over 100 Su-34s in early 2024. Since these assessments, Russia has lost several more Su-34s (after all, another year of full-scale war is a lot of war). It should be noted that while the production numbers could be higher, so too could the number lost during the war.